Debating the Value of Google’s Big Flu Data
I’m sure you’ve heard the news or even the coughs and sneezes from the cubicles all around you. It’s flu season, and according to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and Google, it’s potentially one of the worst outbreaks in history.
Google.org started its flu-trending data project six years ago, and the concept is pretty simple. After aggregating the number of flu-related search terms across the country (even state by state), Google creates a line graph that shows spikes and lulls—although there aren’t any lulls to be seen this year.
Even though the CDC now officially recognizes Google as a partner for its algorithm, some are skeptical about the value of the search giant’s efforts. Google is the first to point out, “Of course, not every person who searches for 'flu' is actually sick, but a pattern emerges when all the flu-related search queries are added together.”
The video below explains why Google’s global search history provides more than just a coincidence of matching its data and that of the CDC. By using real time results, Google is able to consistently beat the CDC to the punch.
While I’m not skeptical of the accuracy of Google’s findings, I do wonder what the actual value of this project is. Obviously, they’re able to report flu trends faster than the CDC is able to create a formal report of its own; but people tend to know when the flu has hit their area. They’ve either contracted it themselves, or their coworkers or classmates begin to drop like flies.
But perhaps simply compiling the data and being able to read it are the value. Big data is showing no sign of being any less the hot button topic it was in 2012. InformationWeek points out:
Google doesn't position Flu Trends as a replacement for traditional data from health agencies but rather as a complement that can help public health officials detect disease outbreaks early on and hopefully limit the number of people affected.
Proving that the CDC has no intention of stopping its own big data aspirations, mobile app and desktop developers alike were invited to compete in the CDC Flu App Challenge where cash prizes were given to teams that were able to…you guessed it, come up with their own data aggregation and reporting tools.
The CDC doesn’t seem to be too concerned with Google’s data drag-racing demeanor. When Slate asked the CDC’s Michael Jhung if this flu season will be the worst ever, he calmly stated, “We don’t know, and won’t know until the end of the season.”
Of course, the best result from Google's and the CDC’s data reporting will be to see if their work one day causes the number of flu cases to go down, instead of just being able to be the first one to tell us that they’ve gone up.
